March is nearly upon us, and this college hoops season is shaping up to be one of the most parity-filled seasons we have ever seen. Ranked teams are losing left and right, making the betting scene a place filled with opportunities. Here, I put my 2024 11-6 college basketball record on the line, and give you three picks for a jam-packed Saturday slate.
Iowa Moneyline (+105)
#20 Wisconsin (17-8 overall, 9-5 Big Ten) at Iowa (14-11 overall, 6-7 Big Ten)
I love everything about this spot for the Hawkeyes. They’re at home, playing against a struggling Wisconsin who has lost 4 of 5, it’s a sold-out revenge game, and the Hawks desperately need a signature win. They’re not going to be a Tournament team this year, but they currently sit 10th in the Big Ten and could jump all the way up to 6th if things go right tomorrow. Over the past five seasons, the Hawks are 16-2 at home in the month of February, and I’m backing them to take care of the 20th-ranked Badgers tomorrow.
Wisconsin has played well on both sides this year, ranking top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. However, this has been a completely different Wisconsin team over the past five games. They’ve scored just 65.4 points per game over this skid, and they’ve given up 71.8. This plays right into Iowa’s strengths, who consistently has had one of the nation’s best offenses for years. They’re averaging 83.5 points per game this season, and tomorrow should be no different. Look for Tony Perkins to have a big game, as the Badgers have really struggled covering guards as of recently.
I expect Iowa to win this game by nearly double digits, and I have total confidence taking the juice on the moneyline at +105.
Illinois -1.5 (-110)
#14 Illinois (18-6 overall, 9-4 Big Ten) at Maryland (14-11 overall, 6-8 Big Ten)
This Illinois team (18-6 overall, 9-4 Big Ten) is really, really good. They have one of the best offenses in the country, and their defense has proven to be one of the Big Ten’s best. In addition, they don’t get discouraged by playing on the road. They currently sit at 3-3 in Big Ten road games, and all three losses are to teams currently in the top 5 of the Big Ten standings (Purdue, MSU, Northwestern). Maryland currently sits at 11th in the Big Ten, and they haven’t been particularly good at home (just 4-3 in conference).
These teams last played on Jan 14, when Maryland handled the Illini 76-67 in Champaign. Instead of seeing that as a negative for Saturday’s matchup, I think it plays to Illinois’ favor. They’ll be looking to prove a point in this one, and the only way to do that is to win the game. In that January matchup, the Illini were without their leading scorer amidst controversy. In the 7 games since his return, they have averaged 85.4 points per game. This team should score in bunches on Saturday.
It’d be easy to back the home underdog here, but I just don’t think this Maryland squad is anything special. Outside of that Illinois upset, their best win is Nebraska (who is 0-7 on the road in Big Ten play). I think Illinois makes a statement on Saturday, proving they are the Big Ten’s second best team. Give me the Illini with a short spread.
Texas Tech Team Total o63.5 (-110)
Texas Tech (18-6 overall, 7-4 Big 12) at #10 Iowa State (19-5 overall, 8-3 Big 12)
Life on the road in the Big 12 is tough, but this Texas Tech squad has shown time and time again that they’re capable of competing on the road in this conference. How have they done so? By scoring points.
They haven’t necessarily won the games, but the offense has performed. On the road against #20 Texas (at the time), they scored 78 in a win. At #11 Oklahoma, they dropped 85 in a win. At #25 TCU, they scored 78 in a loss, and at #13 Baylor, they scored 73 in a loss. They’re always capable of scoring, no matter whose court they are on.
This Iowa State team is a different beast, ranking 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, but I like the Red Raiders to put up more of a fight than Vegas is expecting of them. I understand why Tech’s team total is so low, as the Clones have shown instances of defensive dominance throughout this season at home, but Texas Tech has 6 different players averaging double digit points. Iowa State has struggled at times with teams who have many different scoring threats (87 points allowed to BYU, 72 to TCU, 70 to Baylor), and I see Tech taking this game to the wire thanks to their offense.