By Wu
The Genesis Invitational, held in Pacific Palisades, California, at Riviera Country Club has a few compelling storylines that will shape up for an exciting tournament. The biggest of which is the return of the golfing world’s GOAT, Tiger Woods (Official World Golf Ranking #893). Tiger returns from his golfing hiatus having last played The Masters in April of 2023. He currently sits on 82 career PGA Tour wins, 15 of those being majors. However, despite 15 appearances in The Genesis, the Sunday trophy remains elusive in his trophy case. Tiger placed second at the event in both 1998 and 1999, but he has only cracked the top 5 once in 10 appearances since then. Although a massive longshot to win this year, Tiger playing golf is always worth following.
Other stories include last year’s winner, Jon Rahm (OWGR #3), signing with LIV and not participating in this year’s tournament. Scottie Sheffler (OWGR #1) failed to complete his WM Phoenix Open 3-peat this past weekend, finishing T-3 and still looking to grab his first win since 2023 at The Players Championship. If Scottie can dial in his putter the golfing world may have a big problem on its hands trying to stop him. However, this has been said for numerous years and by many different people.
With all that being said, let’s look into some of the best bets for this weekend’s tournament, which will take place February 15-18.
Max Homa Top 10 Finish (+190)
Southern California native Max Homa (OWGR #8) is no stranger to The Genesis Invitational as he has competed at Riviera seven times. Of those seven, Homa has only been cut twice, both coming at the earlier stages of his career in 2014 and 2015. More importantly, he has placed in the top 10 in four straight appearances since 2020, including a win in 2021.
Last year, he came in second, losing to the aforementioned Jon Rahm. Homa has not played well in his last two starts, placing T-66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and being cut from the WM Phoenix Open this past weekend, however, we are confident that he will get this PGA season turned around at Riviera, a course he is known to excel at.
Other than the last two starts where he was cut, Homa has made the top 15 in 10 consecutive starts dating back to July of 2023 at the Genesis Scottish Open (not to be mistaken for The Genesis Invitational). As for Homa winning The Genesis Invitational this year, he sits as the fifth favorite at +1450. We see value everywhere between Homa winning it all and finishing in the top 20 (-160), but we’re most confident in him finishing in the top 10 at +190.
Collin Morikawa Top 20 Finish (-130)
Another golfer easing his way into the start of this season is 2x Major winner, Collin Morikawa (OWGR #14). Morikawa has taken it slow this season, making just three starts thus far. However, we’re backing him and his history of success at Riviera to have a successful weekend.
In his last two appearances at The Genesis Invitational, Morikawa has finished T-6 and T-2, and in these last two tournaments, he has averaged +3.60 True Strokes Gained. When Morikawa plays his best golf, he is hard to beat. We see value in Morikawa to finish in the top 10 at +190, but we recommend the safer play in taking Morikawa to finish in the top 20 (-130).
Adam Scott To Win The Genesis Invitational (+3150) (0.2 units)
Here is a play for the true gamblers. Our long-shot pick to win is Adam Scott (OWGR #48), although it may not be as crazy as you think. Scott has had an amazing track record at Riviera which includes two wins (2005, 2020) and two second-place finishes (2006, 2016). It is no surprise that Scott (age 43) is one of the oldest golfers on tour and has the second most rounds played at Riviera (56 rounds). This certainly plays into his advantage. Scott also has the sixth-highest average adjusted strokes gained at +1.92.
His last round at The Genesis was lackluster, to say the least. He finished 65th which was the worst finish in his last 10 starts playing in The Genesis Invitational. However, Scott has been playing some incredible golf recently. Of his last six starts, five have seen him in the top 10 while he finished T-20 in the lone other. We think that where the odds are sitting right now, there is solid value in sprinkling 0.2 units on Scott to win The Genesis Invitational at +3150.
Odds provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.