Best Bet: Iowa Moneyline (+100)
#12 Illinois (22-8 overall, 13-6 Big Ten) at Iowa (18-12 overall, 10-9 Big Ten)
On February 17th, Iowa had just a 1.4% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. Since then, the Hawkeyes have been a completely different team. They’ve won 4 out of 5, picking up three all-important Quad 1 victories in that span. Today, they have a 47% chance of making the Tournament, and a win on Sunday would likely put them on the dancing side of the bubble. Sunday presents them with yet another Quad 1 opportunity, as they host Illinois (NET #15). If I were an Iowa fan, I could not imagine a better opportunity to place an exclamation point on the resume than the one they have in front of them. They’re on 8 days rest, they’re facing an Illinois team that they went back and forth with for 35 minutes just two weeks ago, and they’re playing as well as you could ask for from a team on the bubble. We’ve bet on the Hawks all season long, and we’re as confident as ever in this one.
As we mentioned last week before their Northwestern matchup, Iowa’s offense has finally been performing up their potential in recent weeks. They’ve averaged 85.6 points per game over their last five games while matching up with some of the conference’s toughest defenses. Sophomore Josh Dix has broken out in this span, averaging 16.6 over the past five. NBA Draft prospect Payton Sandfort has averaged 20.1 over the past seven, and Tony Perkins is playing the best basketball of his career. They have a handful of guys who could put up 20 points on any given night.
I’ve been a big believer in Illinois all year, but they’re just 5-4 in Big Ten road games. In addition, they have just a 2-4 road record against teams who are Top 60 in KenPom offensive efficiency. This creates a perfect storm for Iowa, who ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and is averaging 89.8 PPG in home games this season. In addition, they’re 12-0 at home when scoring more than 80 points. Given Illinois’ recent defensive struggles, it’s almost a guarantee that Iowa scores more than 80 in this one.
This one will be a barn burner, and I’m taking Iowa 92-84. In heaven there is no beer.