March is finally here. As we dwindle towards conference tournaments and Selection Sunday, we have once again been blessed with an all-important Super Saturday. 21 ranked teams will be in action on a day sure to be filled with upsets and dominant performances. Here, I break down my best bet to help us make some money together.
Saturday’s Best Bet: Iowa Moneyline (+130)
Iowa (17-12 overall, 9-9 Big Ten) at Northwestern (20-8 overall, 11-6 Big Ten)
This may be an uncomfortable bet, but we are once again riding the red-hot Hawkeyes in a game that I see as a coin flip. Northwestern currently sits 3rd in the Big Ten standings, and they are 8-0 at home in conference play. Meanwhile, Iowa is just 3-6 in Big Ten road games. The Wildcats should be 6 or 7 point favorites, right?
I really love this spot for this Iowa team because of how they’ve played with their backs against the wall in recent weeks. These Hawkeyes have been a different team over the past two weeks, and they’ve crept their way right into the Tournament bubble picture. If they can pick up this Quad 1 win on Saturday, they’d likely find themselves in the First 4 Out come Sunday.
Iowa has had this midseason resurgence because their offense is performing like we’re used to seeing from an Iowa offense. They’re averaging more than 85 points over the past four games, largely in part because sophomore guard Josh Dix has stepped up as an elite scoring threat (17+ points in 3 of those 4 games). In addition, sharp-shooter Payton Sandfort has averaged 19.7 over the past six. Add in Tony Perkins and Owen Freeman, and this offense is finally capable of performing as a top 10 offense in the nation.
While Northwestern is 11-6 in Big Ten play, they’re just 4-5 against Big Ten teams who rank Top 50 in KenPom offensive efficiency. Iowa currently sits 12th in offensive efficiency, and I see no reason why they’ll score less than 85 tomorrow. This team is playing their best basketball of the year, and they’ve really shown no signs of slowing down. The Hawks picked up 3 Quad 1 wins in February (Wisconsin, @ MSU, @ Minnesota), and I believe they’ll pick up another to kick off March.
Odds are provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.