One of the most anticipated matchups of the college hoops season will take place tonight, as #6 Iowa State (20-5 overall, 9-3 Big 12) will be visiting #2 Houston (22-3 overall, 9-3 Big 12). The two teams are tied for first in the Big 12, and this game seems to have massive implications for who will be crowned conference champion in a few weeks. In their last matchup on Jan 9 in Ames, Iowa State outlasted Houston in a 57-53 slugfest. The Cyclones enter this one as a 9.5-point underdog, their largest spread deficit of the season. Here, we dive into this top 10 matchup and give one play that we’re riding tonight.
Both of these teams have been simply dominant at home. Both are undefeated this season on their home court, typically exhibiting suffocating defense en route to large margins of victory. Since this one is at Houston, we’ll focus on their home performance. In 14 home games this year, their smallest margin of victory is 15 points. Almost every handicapper that I’ve come across on Twitter is backing Houston tonight for this reason alone.
However, when we dive into who they’ve been playing at home, the statistic becomes less impressive. Their only two home wins against teams currently projected to be in the Tournament are Texas and Texas Tech – good teams, but nowhere near Iowa State’s level. The team who gave the Cougars the best fight was UCF and their 16th-ranked KenPom defense, as they were able to contain Houston in a 57-42 loss; UCF’s problem in that matchup was their own abysmal offense. Iowa State, on the other hand, has the defense to effectively contain Houston and the offense needed to keep up with the Cougars. In six Big 12 road games, the Cyclones are averaging 69 points. This isn’t eye-popping by any means, but combined with their 3rd-ranked defense, it’s enough to keep this game close.
So many cappers are taking Houston in this one because every computer model predicts they will win big. However, I’m relying on the eye test for this one. Iowa State has looked like a legit title contender all season long, and I think there’s no chance they’re 9.5 points worse than Houston on any court. I don’t know how much of a chance they have to win, but I think this spread should be closer to 5 or 6. This game will be a low-scoring instant classic, and I’m backing the Cyclones.
Final score prediction: Houston 64, Iowa State 60
Best Bet: Iowa State +9.5 (-110)
All odds provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.