As we inch closer to Super Bowl LVIII, it’s only fitting that the NFL’s premier game is held in Vegas. Home of nearly every nationwide sports betting platform, I break down my favorite plays for Sunday night.
Isiah Pacheco o17.5 receiving yards (-110)
It’s no secret that Travis Kelce is the focal point of this Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs thus far. Kelce is certainly capable of producing another monster statline, but look for Fred Warner and the San Francisco defense to place an emphasis on covering the tight end. As a result, other targets may consistently be better options for Patrick Mahomes, and I expect Isiah Pacheco to see an increase in usage in the passing game.
Pacheco hasn’t been targeted like usual in this year’s playoffs with only 6 receptions across 3 games, but he has still seen heavy usage in these games, racking up 63 carries. The 49ers defense has struggled against the run in the playoffs, so Pacheco should see another high-volume game. The Chiefs will need to find a way to keep the San Francisco front honest, so expect them to game plan other ways than just the ground game to keep Pacheco involved.
While the 49ers defense as a whole is among the best in the league, they struggle covering running backs out of the backfield. This season, they have allowed 36.8 receiving yards per game to running backs, ranking them 25th in the league. With Jerick McKinnon out of the mix due to injury, Pacheco serves as the main pass-catching threat in Kansas City’s backfield. For these reasons, I expect Isiah Pacheco to go over his projected 17.5 receiving yards.
Total points u47.5 (-110)
This game is full of offensive game changers on both teams. Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy both rank in the top 6 in passing yards. Christian McCaffrey is the league’s best running back by nearly every metric. George Kittle and Travis Kelce rank first and second in receiving yards among tight ends. This is all without mentioning the speed and explosivity of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice. This game should be a shootout, right?
Not so fast. These defenses are legit. The Chiefs and 49ers rank 2nd and 3rd in points allowed, respectively. More importantly, these defenses have been able to keep star-studded offenses in check. When facing top 10 scoring offenses, Kansas City has given up just 16.7 points per game, and San Francisco has given up 22.3.
This is by far the best defense Patrick Mahomes has ever had behind him, especially in the secondary. Kansas City ranks 4th in passing yards allowed this season, allowing just under 200 per game. Although cliché, I very much expect Brock Purdy to be used as a game manager in this one.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense ranks 5th in passing yards allowed per pass attempt, and according to Next Gen Stats, Patrick Mahomes has struggled mightily with deep shots this season (whether it be the fault of his own or his receivers). Look for Mahomes to take a lot of safe passes in the flats and underneath, as moving the ball downfield would seem to be risky.
The one vulnerability of these defenses is their run prevention; both rank bottom 12 in rushing yards allowed per rush attempt. Expect a lot of time-consuming drives, as this game will feature a heavy dosage of ground game from both offenses with limited downfield passes.
Long story short, these defenses know how to contain electric offenses, and they are far too stingy to allow 47.5 combined points. The under is the play here.
49ers Moneyline (-120)
As this entire article has alluded to, the two most important players in this game are Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco. Among running backs, McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and total touchdowns. He just put up one of the best running back seasons in recent memory, and has deservingly been named an MVP finalist. Meanwhile, Pacheco has been a middle of the pack running back all season long. He may finish with close to 100 yards, but the 49ers have a massive advantage at this game’s most important position. Expect this one to be all about McCaffrey.
The Chiefs have the best quarterback on the planet, and that certainly counts for something, but he hasn’t had an eye-popping statline yet this entire postseason. The Chiefs have relied on their run game and their defense to get to this point. Is Mahomes absolutely capable of producing 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on Sunday night? Yes, but I think the chances are incredibly slim against this 49ers defense.
In a game featuring two dominant defenses, the 49ers simply have the better offense, and by quite a bit. San Francisco finished the regular season with the 9th best offense in DVOA history, a stat that compares performance to the league-average baseline. They’ve put up an astounding 28.4 points per game against top 10 scoring defenses, while the Chiefs have put up just 20.8. The playoff 49ers haven’t looked as dominant as the regular season 49ers, but they’ve shown flashes. More specifically, they just scored 27 second half points to earn their spot in the Super Bowl. I understand the Mahomes underdog narrative, but this 49ers team is just too good to fade. Final score prediction: 49ers 24, Chiefs 17.
Bonus Bet (0.5 units): Christian McCaffrey SB LVIII MVP (+475)
The Super Bowl MVP award is by no means a quarterback-exclusive award as some believe- just 6 of the last 10 winners were quarterbacks. I’ve already discussed just how great McCaffrey has been this year, and he can put the cherry on top on Sunday.
Kyle Shanahan is aware of the Chiefs daunting secondary, but he’s also aware that he has perhaps the league’s best player as his running back. The 49ers approach will be formulated around McCaffrey. He should see 20-25 carries, which gives him a great opportunity to soar over 100 yards. If he can find the endzone once, he has a shot at MVP. If he can find the endzone twice, there’s no debate.
McCaffrey’s odds should be around +250, giving us great expected value at +475. Put a half-unit on this one and forget about it.
All statistics provided by NFL and Pro Football Reference.
All odds provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.