Pitchers and catchers will report to spring training over the next couple of days, as Opening Day’s date of March 28 is soon approaching. Over the next few weeks, Minny Bets will release divisional betting previews for each of the six divisions. Here, we’ll break down each team, predict their record, and make our pick for the division winner. We begin with what may be the league’s most compelling division, as the AL West has three teams with legit World Series aspirations.
Our Division Winner: Seattle Mariners (+300 to win division)
Minny Bets predicted record: 95-67
This division has been won by the Houston Astros in each of the past six full seasons. This prediction is by no means a shot at the Astros, but is a nod to the potential of this Mariners squad.
It all starts with the starting rotation. Last season, Luis Castillo finished 5th in Cy Young voting with a 3.34 ERA and 219 strikeouts. George Kirby finished 8th in Cy Young voting, and Logan Gilbert finished top 10 in the American League in strikeouts. This is without mentioning Bryan Woo, who’s expected ERA was 3.45 last year according to Baseball Savant, and former Top 100 prospect Bryce Miller who put together a solid year in his first season. FanGraphs projects this to be the best staff in the American League in terms of WAR, and whoever is on the mound will give them a strong chance to win each time they take the field.
The lineup was middle of the pack last year, finishing 7th in runs in the AL. They have to replace Teoscar Hernández’s production, but the additions of Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, and Luke Raley (6.6 combined WAR in 2023) should make this lineup one of the AL’s best. Julio Rodriguez, who posted a .941 second-half OPS, is the trendy AL MVP pick. J.P. Crawford had a career year last season, racking up 5.1 WAR on his way to receiving MVP votes.
This team has won at least 88 games in each of the last three seasons, and I’m expecting them to take the next step this year. Their lineup is deep, their pitching staff is even deeper, and this team has the potential to be really, really good. Throw some money on them to win their first division title since 2001 at +300, and expect a season-long sweat.
2nd place: Houston Astros
Predicted record: 90-72
This Astros team was difficult for me to make predictions on. I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up as the #1 seed in the AL, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up missing the playoffs. So I have them ending up somewhere in the middle.
The lineup is scary good. We know all about Yordan Álvarez and his .978 career OPS. Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman just put up sneaky great seasons, and franchise icon Jose Altuve just signed a deal to stay an Astro for life. Outside of the big four, Jeremy Peña, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz all accumulated more than 3 WAR last year. This is one of baseball’s deepest lineups.
The reason I’m not picking them to continue their run on top of the AL West standings is because their starting rotation is good, but not great. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez are phenomenal, but in games not started by those two, the team’s starting pitchers compiled a combined 4.49 ERA. I don’t think Cristian Javier is the pitcher we once thought he might be, and Hunter Brown had a 6.57 second-half ERA. The bullpen will again be one of the AL’s best, but they’re going to have to clean up their fair share of sloppy starting pitcher outings.
This is still a dominant Astros team with many familiar faces, and I’m predicting them to finish with 90 wins, matching their output from last season.
3rd place: Texas Rangers
Predicted record: 85-77
Rangers fans just saw the franchise’s best season ever, finishing with 90 wins and never really breaking a sweat in the playoffs en route to their first World Series win. There is a lot to be excited about in Arlington, and this will be a solid team, but I’m not sure I see them repeating their 2023.
I think the lineup is pretty easily the best in the American League, but I’m worried about their pitching. Max Scherzer is set to return from back surgery in June or July, and Jacob deGrom hopes to be back by August from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi had another great season last year and will be this team’s ace for the time being, but Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney all had up-and-down years. The bullpen projects to be 4th worst in the AL, as they look to replace Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman. I think the offense is going to have to put up lots of runs to keep them in many games.
The good news for the Rangers is that this offense will do just that. Last year, Corey Seager had a 1.013 OPS, Marcus Semien led the league in hits, and Adolis García blasted 39 homers. Josh Jung and Jonah Heim were both All-Stars, and newcomers Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are considered to be ROY favorites. They put up the most runs in the AL last season at 5.4 per game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they topped that number this year.
There’s a lot to be excited about with these Rangers, but there’s also reason for concern. I think they’ll be fighting for a playoff spot come the end of September, and I see them earning the sixth and final seed. They are a team absolutely nobody will want to face come October.
4th place: Los Angeles Angels
Predicted record: 66-96
The Angels’ only chance to contend this season was to win free agency. They needed to find a way to re-sign their 10 WAR unicorn, add some lineup depth, and find an ace.
To sum up their offseason, they lost Shohei Ohtani to free agency, they signed Aaron Hicks, and Anthony Rendon said he dislikes playing baseball.
The bright spot on this team is Mike Trout. He’s played in just under 50% of his team’s games over the past three seasons due to injuries, but I’m expecting Trout to have a bounceback year. His stats in those games suggest he’s still one of the best players in baseball, and if he can play in 130 games, he’s one of my dark horses to win AL MVP. Outside of Trout, their 2024 projected lineup combined for just 10.1 WAR last year.
Their pitching staff is led by the trio of Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Griffin Canning, who all finished with an ERA over 4 last season. They did add plenty of bullpen depth this offseason, but no amount of bullpen depth would make them contenders. Expect another disappointing season from the Angels as they move into the post-Ohtani era.
5th place: Oakland Athletics
Predicted record: 55-107
It is a difficult time to be a fan of the Oakland A’s. They finished with just 50 wins last season and are in the middle of a messy relocation to Vegas. Owner John Fisher seemingly refuses to invest in on-field talent, and the future looks unpromising as they have just one Top 100 Prospect. The fanbase of a once-dominant team deserves better, but it is not happening in the near future.
To highlight the positives, first-time All-Star Brent Rooker had a breakout year, mashing 30 homers and posting a 130 OPS+, and rookie Zack Gelof looked very promising in his debut season. Outside of those two, it’s hard to get excited about anyone on the roster. Last year, the lineup ranked 30th out of 30 in OPS, the starting rotation ranked 29th in starter ERA, and the bullpen ranked 28th in bullpen ERA.
This season will be another wash for the A’s, and it will be some time before they are considered competitive again.
Odds are provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.