By Wu
PGA’s Florida portion of the season starts this week at the PGA National Resort (The Champion) in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Cognizant Classic. The tournament starts Thursday, February 29th with the first tee time at 6:45 am EST. The purse the players are competing for is $9,000,000. Last year’s winner was Chris Kirk (Official World Golf Ranking #27), who beat out Eric Cole (OWGR #36) in a playoff. This year’s favorite to win is Rory McIlroy (OWGR #2) at +630. The golfer with the next best odds is Cameron Young (OWGR #23) at +1980. Many of the top golfers took a break last week during the Mexico Open, as first-time PGA winner Jake Knapp (OWGR #54) took home the trophy. Here, we look to give you the plays that make the most sense from a golfing and odds perspective.
Shane Lowry to beat Corey Conners (+113)
Shane Lowry’s (OWGR #57) last start was at the WM Phoenix Open in early February where he placed T-60. Before that, he made two other starts in the 2024 season, where he was cut from the first and finished T-25 in the second. Lowry has not had the best start to the season, but he has proven that he continuously plays well at the PGA National Resort (The Champion) course. He has played at the course a total of six times, and he has made the cut in every start. Lowry’s last two starts at the Cognizant Classic, previously known as the Honda Classic, saw him finish 2nd in 2022 and T-5 in 2023. On the other hand, Corey Conners (OWGR #49), has made the cut in each of his five starts of the 20224 season. However, when it comes to playing in the Cognizant Classic, Conners struggles. He has only played in it twice, placing T-59 in 2018 and missing the cut in 2020. We are betting on Lowry to beat Connors in this matchup, and we love the value at +113.
Akshay Bhatia to beat Doug Ghim (+100)
Akshay Bhatia (OWGR #95) and Doug Ghim (OWGR #147) have had similar starts to the 2024 PGA season. Both have put up great performances, placing in the Top 15 in three of their five starts while being cut from their other two starts. Bhatia (age 22) has shown great potential stemming from his first win on the PGA tour last July at the Barracuda Championship. Ghim, on the other hand, has not shown much consistency. Although he is having one of his best starts to a season, Ghim has fewer Top 5 finishes (1) in his five-year PGA career than Bhatia in his 2-year career (4). Ghim may have the experience on Bhatia when it comes to playing at the PGA National Resort (The Champion) course as has played here three times from 2020-2022, but he has failed to make the cut in all three appearances. Bhatia has played here once in 2023 and had a respectable finish at T-49. With all of this being said, we see big upside for Bhatia to beat Ghim at even money (+100) this week at the Cognizant Classic.
Top 20 Finish: Eric Cole (+145) & Russell Henley (+126)
Eric Cole (OWGR #36) placed in the Top 15 in five consecutive starts from October 3rd, 2023 to January 14th, 2024, with three of those finishes being in the Top 3. Since then, Cole has made the Top 20 twice in his last 5 starts. Cole is the 11th highest-ranked golfer in the field for this week, and finished 2nd in his lone outing at this course in 2023. Due to this high finish, he has the best Adjusted True Strokes Gained in this year’s field. We expect Cole to make his way back into the Top 20 at this year’s tournament, and we feel confident getting great odds at +145.
We also believe that Russell Henley (OWGR #29) will succeed because of his familiarity with this course. Henley has played here a total of nine times (34 rounds), his most recent being in 2021 where he placed T-3. Of his nine starts, Henley placed in the Top 20 five times. Much like Cole, Henley ended the 2023 season on a hot streak, placing in the Top 14 in his final five starts of the year. In the 2024 season, he finished T-4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but has failed to crack the Top 20 in his two most recent starts. However, because of his past history and success at this course, we’re confident placing money on a Henley Top 20 finish at +126.
Odds are provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.