By Wu
The Mexico Open is at Vidanta in Vallarta for the third consecutive year. The first tee time is Thursday, Feb.22 at 7:30 am CST. The two previous winners were John Rahm (Official World Golf Ranking #3) in 2022 and Tony Finau (OWGR # 24) in 2023. The purse is $8,000,000 which did not attract the top names on the PGA Tour, and Rahm is no longer in the picture after joining LIV. Finau currently sits as the highest-rated golfer in the field at +800 to win the tournament, and the next closest competitor is Nicolai Hojgaard (OWGR #34) at +1600 to win. With this weak field of golfers, we try to find the edge on the odds to give you the plays to have a successful weekend of betting on golf.
Brandon Wu Top 20 Finish (+170)
Brandon Wu (OWGR #126) has certainly not had the start he wanted for the 2024 season. This will be Wu’s third season on the PGA Tour and it has not been easy on him, to say the least. He most recently failed to make the cut at the WM Phoenix Open earlier in February. However, he is having the best season of his professional and amateur career in terms of Total Strokes Gained at +0.48. We believe in Wu to make the Top 20 at The Mexico Open and the odds are sitting in a great spot. Wu has competed in both Mexico Open’s that have been held at Vidanta, and both times he has given the favorites a run for their money. Wu finished T-2 in 2022 and 3rd in 2023. Wu only has four top 5 finishes ever on the PGA Tour, and two of them came at Vidanta. He has the second highest Average True Strokes Gained at Vidanta other than the aforementioned Finau. The odds to make the Top 20 for Wu sit at +170 and are a great price for a golfer known to have his best career performances at The Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Andrew Novak to beat Robby Shelton (-114)
As said before, The Mexico Open’s playing field this year is not very strong. With this being said, we believe this will benefit finding the odds when picking matchup winners. One of the most intriguing matchups we like is Andrew Novak (OWGR #229) to beat Robby Shelton (OWGR #150). The first thing that may come to mind is,”‘why is Shelton ranked so much higher than Novak?”, and the answer is simple; Shelton tends to place higher than Novak. Novak and Shelton have had somewhat expected starts in 2024. Both have played in four Opens thus far. Novak most recently finished 8th at WM Phoenix Open while Shelton finished T-60. However, before Waste Management, Novak had been cut the other three Opens.
With all of this being said, we believe Novak has the advantage when it comes to playing at Vidanta. Novak will be playing at Vidanta for his third consecutive year. He placed T-15 in 2022 and T-49 in 2023, whereas Shelton played only in 2023 and was Cut before weekend golf (Shelton was five strokes below the cut line). Since the Valspar Championship in March of 2023, Novak and Shelton have competed in the same Open 21 different times. Novak has outscored Shelton seven of those times, Shelton has outscored Novak seven of those times, and they have tied seven of those times. The gap between Shelton and Novak is closer than the OWGR makes it seem, and with Novak’s past performances at The Mexico Open we believe taking him to beat Shelton at -114 is a good play.
Bonus Bets: Patrick Rodgers Top 20 Finish (+162) & Cameron Champ Top 20 Finish (+240)
If you are looking for a couple of plus money plays to save your week, we have just the thing for you. The reasoning behind both of these golfers to make the Top 20 is based on their past successful performances at Vidanta. Patrick Rodgers (OWGR #84) is tied for the eighth-best odds to win The Mexico Open at +3300. Rodgers has placed 10th in back-to-back starts at Vidanta and shows no signs of slowing down as he has the 6th best True Strokes Gained compared to the rest of the field. We believe he is plus money because he has failed to place in the Top 50 in his last two starts, but before those, he had participated in four events and placed no worse than T-24. For the price we are getting Rodgers to make the Top 20 (+162), we believe the value is certainly there.
As for our next pick, many may be unfamiliar with Cameron Champ (OWGR #311). He is by far the lowest rated golfer we have talked about, but do not let the ranking deceive you. Champ is entering his sixth year on the PGA Tour, and he has not been great to say the least. Champ’s main problem is staying consistent. He is a 3x tour winner in his career, his last being in July of 2021 at the 3M Open, but he has started this season being Cut from the four starts he has made. With all this being said, Champ has been consistent when playing at Vidanta. In 2022, Champ placed a season best T-6, and he followed it up in 2023 by placing another season best T-8. Although he is not the best golfer in the field, he has constantly had his best outings at The Mexico Open at Vidanta. His odds to finish in the Top 20 this week are at +240, and it’s a bet we’re riding.
Odds are provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.